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AI’s Oppenheimer Moment | Andreessen Horowitz https://a16z.com/ais-oppenheimer-moment/
.@dylan522p forecasts that iPhones could get $250 more expensive for consumers. Smartphone sales could drop from 1.1 billion a year to 500-600 million over the next couple of years, with the low end getting crushed hardest. Around a third of big tech’s $600 billion in CapEx this
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/2032856818687619113
.@dylan522p gives a deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute: logic, memory, and power. And walks through the economics of labs, hyperscalers, foundries, and fab equipment manufacturers. Learned a ton about every single level of the stack. 0:00:00 – Why an H100
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/2032493847666659780
.@dylan522p lays out how we know the hard upper bound on how much compute can be produced annually by 2030: around 200 GW/year. That’s a crazy number (there’s about 20 GW of AI deployed in the world right now), but it’s nowhere near enough to satisfy Sam/Elon/Dario/Demis’s
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/2032514120461988204
.@dylan522p you are a genius
https://x.com/TheTuringPost/status/2033625119302815836
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